This question has been consistently asked by many people both before and during my term as a city councillor. Before this question can be answered, we need to agree on its meaning. To me it means a long term plan and vision for the future. A road map to take us from point A to point B in 5, 10 and 20 years from now. This vision is proactive and takes into consideration the many trends (global, national, and regional) that are shaping our future. It also identifies opportunities to take advantage of, by building on our strengths and working on our weaknesses.

Giving a clear and concise answer to this question requires more than a simple one-page answer. It will require a two part series. First a framework within which one can expand on, and also a reference point to keep going back to. In this context, the framework will be the economy of Ontario, specifically Thunder Bay, and the reference point will be City Hall.

The economy of Northern Ontario has historically been closely tied to growth in the natural resource industry. This industry is also export driven and subject to cyclical variations in international prices and demand for its products. Level of income and employment were closely tied to such fluctuations.

Having worked as a Financial Analyst for Kimberly Clark of Canada in both the Woodlands Division (Longlac) and the Pulp & Paper Division (Terrace Bay) during the 1984-85 recession, I witnessed first hand the cyclical nature of our resource-based industry. However, the recession that started in 1988 and that to some extent continues today (at least in Northern Ontario), brought about some permanent and dramatic structural changes.

Some of these changes (i.e. demographic) are global in nature and are the driving force for much of what is happening. Others are unique to the north and are:

• Intense investment in capital equipment in the resource-based industries resulting in significant reductions in labour. This displacement is permanent not cyclical.

• The once stabilizing force of significant growth in government’s services, in education and health care in the north is now eroding due to continuous restructuring and cutbacks.

• Heavy reliance in the north on provincial transfer payments, both to individuals and to municipalities is now hurting us more than the rest of the province.

What does all of this has to do with a Strategic Plan for Thunder Bay? A lot. Simply stated: "Those who fail to plan, are planning to fail". In other words, we need to be aware of the forces that shape our daily lives and plan to manage them not let them manage us.

Private sector industries learned their lesson in the late seventies and early eighties. Giants like Chrysler almost got wiped out for failing to stay in tune with changing trends in the market place. Governments have been late in recognizing the power of compounding interest over time and only woke up to this reality once they started to lose control over policy decision making (i.e. when you borrow billions of dollars per month, and half of your debt is controlled by foreign countries, your lenders end up telling you what to do). They were then forced to make massive changes to put their financial house in order.

In the next issue I will complete part II by talking about the status of Thunder Bay’s Community Strategic Plan, the extent to which such plan can or cannot address the many challenges facing us, and what other solutions are available to both the politicians and the community in Thunder Bay and Northwestern Ontario.